Pre-Debate Thoughts…

Tonight is the final debate between George W. Bush and John F. Kerry. It is rare for a third debate to carry such weight in an election, as elections are “usually” decided this late in the election season, and viewership drops drastically from that of the first and second debates. Hopefully that trend will be bucked tonight and television viewership hits all-time records for a third debate. The more people that see Kerry in action, the more chances he has at winning the election. Watching Kerry in the debates wipes out the more than $100 million in Republican advertising that has attempted to create a false caricature of Kerry in the eyes of the electorate. It could be the pivotal moment in the campaign, as it is the last major event before voters go to the polls on November 2nd.

I think there are several possible scenerios of what could happen after tonight’s debate:

1. Kerry delivers a powerful knockout punchline that will disallow Bush from responding in any further debates. Since such lines carry much weight in presidential campaigns, Kerry’s numbers will rise just enough to win states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida or even Iowa, where even a single recount in one of those states would fail to bring Bush above 270 electoral votes. Of course, the Bush campaign could challenge the results in all of these states, causing a similar situation that Al Gore found himself in four years ago. Hopefully the Supreme Court would have no choice but to issue Bush a similar judgement that Gore received, forcing Bush to concede defeat.

2. Kerry plays it safe as he has done somewhat in the past two debates, yet still delivering a solid performance against a stiff or bellicose Bush. Kerry’s numbers continue to inch up over the next two weeks as they have been since the first debate, and Kerry squeaks out a win in Ohio and very close votes in Pennsylvania and/or Florida or Iowa, causing challenges by the Bush campaign in either state. Again, the Supreme Court hopefully would have no choice but to issue Bush a similar judgement that Gore received four years ago.

3. Disaster strikes and Kerry is put on the defensive by Bush, causing Bush to surge in the polls as he supposedly did after the Republican National Convention in September. There would not be enough time for Kerry to recover from such a setback. Kerry would win perhaps 240 electoral votes, 30 short of the magic number, ushering in a second Bush term. I don’t think this will happen, but if it did, that’s my prediction.

I realize that these are somewhat simplistic descriptions of what could happen, but I think they could possibly occur considering the closeness of the race. Of course, it is very likely a fourth and completely unexpected scenerio arises as what happened in 2000. No one could have expected what happened between Gore and Bush back in 2000.

Of course, if Bush suffers drastically after this third debate, I think the chances of an October surprise increase. When hearing some Bush administration officials (ie. Perle, Wolfowitz, Cheney) speak with the religious-like fervor that they do, almost as if this election is a crusade of good vs. evil, it would not surprise me if these people overlooked the pitfalls of such a move in pulling out a surprise to try and sway the election their way.

My $0.02.